iOS Attribution Gap Reconciler
Compare platform-reported revenue (Meta + Google) to actual Shopify revenue, see your real blended efficiency.
- • Under 30% over-attribution: platforms are roughly honest
- • 30-60% over-attribution: normal post-iOS overlap — manage to MER
- • 60%+ over-attribution: platforms are largely re-claiming organic / cross-channel sales
- • Negative gap = platforms under-reporting (rare; usually a tracking bug)
About this tool
iOS 14.5 broke deterministic attribution. Platforms now report inflated, overlapping revenue. This reconciler subtracts platform-reported revenue from actual Shopify revenue to show the over-attribution gap, and your real MER.
Why platform-reported revenue is broken
iOS 14.5 (April 2021) ended deterministic mobile attribution. Meta, Google and TikTok now report modelled conversions that consistently overstate platform ROAS by 20-80%. Worse: every platform claims credit for the same conversion when channels overlap, so summing their reports double- and triple-counts the same revenue.
How to interpret the gap
- • Under 30% over-attribution: platforms are roughly honest. Healthy for D2C.
- • 30-60% over-attribution: normal post-iOS overlap. Manage to MER, not platform ROAS.
- • 60%+ over-attribution: platforms are claiming organic / direct sales they didn't drive. Time to run incrementality testing.
The fix
Stop optimising to platform ROAS as the ground truth. Track MER (blended ROAS) as your real efficiency signal, and validate causation with geo-lift incrementality tests quarterly.
Frequently asked questions
Why is my Meta-reported revenue so much higher than Shopify? +
Meta uses modelled conversions to fill the gap iOS 14.5 created. Their models err on the side of claiming credit (good for advertiser perception, bad for accuracy). Combine that with view-through attribution and partial overlap with other channels, and 50-80% over-attribution is normal.
What should I optimise to if not platform ROAS? +
MER (Marketing Efficiency Ratio) = total store revenue ÷ total marketing spend. Single honest number that can't be inflated by attribution overlap. Use our MER Calculator. Pair with quarterly incrementality testing to validate causation.
Is over-attribution always Meta's fault? +
No. Google Ads also inflates via view-through and Performance Max claiming brand search clicks. TikTok's reported ROAS is the least audited and often the most inflated. iOS attribution issues affect every platform, Meta gets the blame because it had the most to lose.
How do I actually run an incrementality test? +
Pause spend in 50% of geos for 2-4 weeks, keep the other 50% running. Measure the revenue delta vs baseline. Lift = incremental contribution of paid. Our Incrementality Test Sample Size Calculator helps you scope it.
More free tools
See all tools →Calculate discount percentage from original and sale price, or calculate sale price from % off.
Calculate Return on Investment % and absolute gain/loss for any investment or project.
Calculate ROI for SMS keyword campaigns, opt-in rate, SMS cost, downstream conversion.
Calculate Reverb (musical instruments marketplace) seller fees, 5% commission + payment processing.
Why wait? Try it free today.
Stop managing feeds manually. Start optimising with AI in 30 seconds.
- 100% free forever, no credit card required
- 1 brand, 1 feed, 100,000 products per feed
- Full AI Product Optimisation, Rule Engine, and 200+ channel exports
- Pay only for AI credits when you need them