Unit economics · 100% free

Subscription First-Order vs Renewal Margin

Compare margin on first subscription order vs renewals, first order usually loses money (CAC + discount), renewals are pure profit.

Subscription

Box / subscription price

First-order discount %Trial / first-box discount typical 30-50%

CAC

COGS per box

Variable costs per box (ship + pkg + proc)

Avg renewals before churn

Total customer LTV

$63.00

First-order margin

$-27.00

Usually negative — expected

Renewal margin per box

$15.00

Pure profit — no CAC, no first-order discount

Renewals needed to break even

About this tool

Subscription brands lose money on first order then profit on renewals. Calculator models the blended margin by renewal rate.

Blended ROAS across every channel, total revenue ÷ total marketing spend. The metric iOS 14.5 made essential.

Calculate the true Fully-Loaded CAC, paid spend + marketing salaries + tools (Klaviyo, Triple Whale) + freelancers + creative.

Calculate net AOV after refunds and returns, typically 15-25% below reported AOV in apparel/footwear D2C.

Calculate cumulative LTV at 30, 60, 90, 180, and 365 days post-acquisition, the granular cohort LTV most operators don't track.

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