Subscription Churn Calculator
Project subscriber count, MRR and LTV from monthly churn, and what cutting churn by 1pp would do.
| Churn cut by | New churn | New lifespan | New LTV | Total LTV unlocked |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −1 pp | 7.0% | 14.3 mo | $251 | +$157,143 |
| −2 pp | 6.0% | 16.7 mo | $293 | +$366,667 |
| −3 pp | 5.0% | 20.0 mo | $352 | +$660,000 |
| −5 pp | 3.0% | 33.3 mo | $587 | +$1,833,333 |
About this tool
For subscription D2C (replenishment, boxes, memberships), churn quietly determines everything. Plug in monthly churn rate, current subscriber count, ARPU and gross margin to see LTV, expected lifespan, and the MRR delta from a small reduction in churn.
Churn benchmarks by subscription type
- • Replenishment (vitamins, coffee, pet food): 5–9% monthly churn
- • Curation boxes (beauty, snacks): 9–14% monthly churn
- • Memberships: 4–7% monthly churn
- • Apparel / accessories rotation: 12–18% monthly churn
Pause > cancel — every time
The single highest-leverage churn intervention is offering pause/skip inside the cancel flow. Subscribers who pause have 60%+ chance of reactivating within 90 days; subscribers who cancel rarely come back. Detect cancel intent → offer pause for 1–3 cycles → measure reactivation.
Frequently asked questions
What's a good subscription churn rate? +
By type: replenishment (vitamins, coffee) 5-9% monthly; curation boxes 9-14%; memberships 4-7%; apparel rotation 12-18%. Annual prepay subscribers churn 50-70% lower than monthly.
What's the difference between gross and net churn? +
Gross churn = subscribers who cancel ÷ total subscribers. Net churn subtracts MRR added from upgrades / expansions. For D2C subscription this rarely matters; for SaaS it's crucial.
How do I cut subscription churn? +
Highest-leverage: offer pause/skip in the cancel flow (cuts churn 20-40%), proactive replenishment reminders, ARR-prepay discount, post-purchase onboarding that sets expectations, easy SKU swaps so they don't have to cancel to change product.
Does churn rate affect LTV? +
Massively. Expected subscriber lifespan is 1/monthly churn rate. Cutting churn from 10% to 8% takes expected lifespan from 10 months to 12.5, a 25% LTV uplift, often worth more than equivalent CAC reduction.
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